Friday, November 21, 2003

Maybe I'm smarter than I think

On Sunday, I wondered: Is the insurgency in Iraq actually drawn from "a fallback plan for the leadership in the event the attack could not be successfully repulsed? A plan that involved maintaining a surreptitious command structure, waging a low-level guerrilla campaign, and gathering support as the occupation proved more and more unpopular and less and less manageable?"

Being stuck for the forseeable future in the world of dial-up, I seem always to be running a little behind the curve. So it was only today that I became aware of this from the November 15 New York Times:
Washington, Nov. 14 — American intelligence agencies have found increasing evidence that the broad outlines of the guerrilla campaign being waged against American forces in Iraq were laid down before the war by the Iraqi Intelligence Service, government officials said Friday. ...

[They] acknowledged that intelligence agencies had earlier underestimated the strength of the resistance and the degree to which it now appears to have reflected central planning and organization.
The article goes on to say that
Some government officials cautioned that the idea that the insurgency had been planned by elements of Saddam Hussein's government before the American invasion of Iraq remained only a leading theory.
However,
Maj. Gen. Charles Swannack Jr., commander of the 82nd Airborne Division, was quoted in The Washington Post earlier this week as saying that the intensity and sophistication of the insurgency, including signs that it is drawing on caches of arms and money put in place before the war, had persuaded him that the guerrilla operations were planned.

"They were planning to go ahead and fight an insurgency, should Iraq fall," General Swannack said in an interview with The Post.

That deduction, government officials said on Friday, is also supported by increasingly credible intelligence, including accounts provided under interrogation by former members of Mr. Hussein's government. A Defense Department official said the new evidence had left no doubt there was "some centralized planning before the war for the plan that has been executed."
Maybe someday I'll have one of those fancy-schmancy high-speed connections so I can keep up with things.

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