Friday, January 09, 2004

Global warming on a cold day

Ah, it's just more of that wooly-headed enviro stuff. Where's the science, I say?
Climate change could drive a million of the world's species to extinction as soon as 2050, a scientific study says. ...

In a report [published in the journal Nature], Extinction Risk From Climate Change, the scientists describe their study of the six biodiversity-rich regions, representing 20% of the Earth's land area.

The scientists considered three different possibilities - minimum, mid-range and maximum expected climate change, on the basis of data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

They also assessed whether or not animals and plants would be able to move to new areas.

They concluded that from 15 to 37% of all the species in the regions studied could be driven to extinction by the climate changes likely between now and 2050. ...

The study's lead author, Professor Chris Thomas, of the University of Leeds, UK, says: "If the projections can be extrapolated globally, and to other groups of land animals and plants, our analyses suggest that well over a million species could be threatened with extinction." ...

Dr Klaus Toepfer, the head of the United Nations Environment Programme, said: "If one million species become extinct... it is not just the plant and animal kingdoms and the beauty of the planet that will suffer.

"Billions of people, especially in the developing world, will suffer too as they rely on Nature for such essential goods and services as food, shelter and medicines".
Some previous posts about climate change are here, here, here, and here.

Making a Stab at a Silver Lining Dept.: The same article says the scientists
have some encouragement as well. They say the minimum expected climate change scenarios for 2050 - the change they regard as inevitable - would mean about 18% of the affected species would vanish.

The medium projections suggest an extinction rate of 24%, and the highest one of 35%.

They conclude: "Minimising greenhouse gas emissions and sequestering [storing] carbon to realise minimum rather than mid-range or maximum expected climate warming could save a substantial percentage of terrestrial species from extinction."
I have to admit it takes a much wider view than I can maintain to describe losing nearly one-fifth of the world's land-based species in the next 50 years as offering "encouragement."

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