Thursday, February 05, 2004

And speaking of poisons....

Does it ever strike you that it seems that every bit of economic news we hear is presented either as a good thing or as irrelevant?

According to two government reports issued Thursday, productivity rose at the slowest rate in a year in the 4th quarter of 2003 and the number of Americans seeking first-time unemployment benefits rose last week.

We're told the former is good news because it indicates employers are increasing hiring. We're told the latter, which directly contradicts the former, is irrelevant because it was caused by bad weather, as if those people were somehow not actually out of work.

More good news: Unit labor costs fell 1.3 percent, a larger drop than the 0.8 percent decline expected by analysts. Good news, that is, for corporate profits. The fact that it also means depressed wages is, apparently, irrelevant.

And hey, check this out! Economists are forecasting non-farm payrolls to increase 150,000 for the month. Cool! Oh, the fact that 150,000 more jobs is on average just enough to keep pace with growth in the labor force, meaning no actual net new jobs for people to get? Irrelevant.

Oh, and that increase in unemployment claims? Again, irrelevant:
"This was a rise on the weekly numbers that people didn't expect, but I would note that the four-week moving average which gives you more of a sense of the trend, remained stable," said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wachovia Securities.

The closely watched four-week moving average, considered a more reliable gauge of labor market health because it smooths volatility, was unchanged at 345,250, where it has been for three straight weeks.
That, of course still contradicts the claims arising from the drop in productivity and confirms the lack of any net growth in jobs.

But that, of course, is - all together, now....

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