Looking up - maybe

There is hope that Europe's longest-standing confrontation may be coming to a settlement. Negotiations over Cyprus (about which I previously posted on January 26 and February 5) have reached a milestone, reports the Greek paper Kathimerini.

After intensive negotiations in New York, which included a session lasting more than 10 hours on Thursday, the two communities of Cyprus made an important breakthrough yesterday, agreeing on procedures for talks that could end the island's division before it joins the EU on May 1.

"We have not solved the problem," UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan cautioned. "But I really believe that after 40 years, a political settlement is at least in reach, provided both sides summon the necessary political will."

One key to the compromise was that the Greek and Turkish sides each allowed the supporting government of the other side to take part in the negotiations. But the real break came in the agreement to have Annan potentially act as an arbitrator rather than just a mediator.

A process has been set down. There will be about four weeks of direct talks starting next Thursday between Cyprus President Tassos Papadopoulos and Turkish-Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash. If there's no agreement, Annan and representatives of Greece and Turkey will join the talks in an attempt to finalize a plan by March 29. If there is still no agreement, Annan will "fill in the blanks" - that is, make a determination about outstanding issues - and call separate referenda on the island. This last part, which sets a positive end date and prevents stalling, was the true achievement.

Prospects look good, not only because both parties on Cyprus have good reason to get to an agreement but even more because Denktash has been out on notice by Turkey that his ability to reach a settlement is a test of his "loyalty." Turkey, which has enabled Denktash's past obstinacy, has recently found itself in the politically-uncomfortable position of having long supported a breakaway state in Cyprus while opposing, supposedly on principle, an autonomous Kurdish area in Iraq. Not allowing the latter was, I expect, more important to Ankara than maintaining the former - leading to the change of heart.

Kudos to Annan for seeing the opening and using it to leverage what has been gained so far.