Reality check

Remember all the breathless, happy reports about the "declining attacks" and "increasing security" in Iraq?

Forget them.

The Financial Times for February 12 tells of

[a] confidential report prepared by the US-led administration in Iraq says that the attacks by insurgents in the country have escalated sharply, prompting fears of what it terms Iraq's "Balkanisation". ...

"January has the highest rate of violence since September 2003," the report said. "The violence continues despite the expansion of the Iraqi security services and increased arrests by coalition forces in December and January."

Some striking figures comparing January to December:

- Strikes against NGOs increased from 19 to 26;
- "high-intensity attacks" more than doubled from 316 to 642;
- incidents such as drive-by shootings and rock-throwing were up 186%.

In addition, attacks in Baghdad doubled from four a day in September to eight a day in January.

It attributed much of the civilian violence to rising ethnic tensions between Kurds, Shias and Sunnis, noting that several bodies were found in the south "with hands bound and bullet wounds to the head".

But attacks on military targets, which had seen two months of decline, rose even faster than those on civilians, it said, particularly in the "Sunni triangle", north and west of Baghdad. It described the "profuse availability" of roadside bombs, the favoured weapon of the insurgents, as "alarming", saying attacks had surged almost 200 per cent.

But Iraqis are better off. And we're safer. And the tooth fairy is for real.