We've got him! We've - uh, wait....

February 22, News.com.au (Australia):

Osama bin Laden is reportedly surrounded by United States special forces in a mountain range that straddles north-west Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Internationally respected investigative journalist and author Gordon Thomas says the al-Qaida terror group leader has been sighted for the first time since 2001 and is being monitored by satellite. ...

Thomas attributes his report to "a well-placed intelligence source" in Washington who is quoted as saying: "He (bin Laden) is boxed in." ...

Once the area was sealed, the special forces troops watched and waited for the order to go in and end the largest manhunt in history.

February 23, CNN:

Pakistan has launched a military operation against al Qaeda and Taliban forces in the country's tribal regions along the Afghan border, Pakistani army spokesman Maj. Gen. Shaukat Sultan said. ...

[U.S. commander in Afghanistan Lt. Gen. David] Barno said the hunt for bin Laden remains a "very, very high priority" for U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

But he seemed to back off a previous statement that the coalition would capture bin Laden and Omar this year, saying "there are no certainties in the war-fighting business out here."

February 24, BBC News:

US forces in Afghanistan have said they are stepping up the hunt for Osama Bin Laden, who is believed to be in the border area. ...

Pakistani intelligence officials say Bin Laden is not the immediate target of the current operation in the semi-autonomous South Waziristan region of North West Frontier Province.

But they hope to glean clues leading to his ultimate capture. ...

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri dismissed reports that American and British forces are closing in on Osama Bin Laden.

Mr Kasuri denied reports in a British Sunday newspaper [the Sunday Express] that the al-Qaeda leader was "boxed in" and said no such information had been passed on to Pakistan.

"Boxed in," in this case, seems to turn out to mean "somewhere in this vicinity," which US and Pakistani forces have thought for months. Even if he himself has in fact been spotted - I have my doubts, recalling how a wedding party in Afghanistan was shot up after being identified as a gathering of al-Qaeda terrorists by the same sort of intelligence a while back - turning that into a grab-and-go operation that's just waiting for the order strikes me as fanciful.

There are some who dispute that, such as the good folks at BuzzFlash, whose energetic vituperation of anything Bush (Ralph Nader ranks a close second) makes them a good source but can also tip them over into what at least approaches paranoia. They've been suggesting for some time that the White House actually knows exactly where bin Laden is and is just waiting for the most politically opportune moment to find him. In response to the "boxed in" story, they proposed that the 2004 "October Surprise" was perhaps just going to happen a bit early because of Bush's current troubles.

But exactly the same sort of thing was said about Saddam Hussein, even to the point of rumors that he'd already been caught and would be "caught" in a PR stunt at the most politically useful time. But what the hell was so politically advantageous about early December? And in fact, there were good indications, solid expressions of increasing confidence, in the weeks leading up to his capture, expressions that are lacking here.

It honestly seems to me that all the notions and rumors about Saddam Hussein have just been recycled for Osama bin Laden. (Even the notion that he's already been caught has been floated.) I can certainly accept that military intelligence is confident that bin Laden is in the mountains along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and even that the purpose of the Pakistani military maneuvers, designed to seal the border, is in part an effort to keep him confined with the idea of eventually tracking him down. But the idea that the Bush team could take him at any time but would risk his slipping away while they wait for the best time politically to take him is frankly just too far over the top for me to take seriously.

Update: The US military is beginning to sound more confident of catching Osama since the start of the Pakistani border operations.

Kabul (Reuters, February 25) - Time is running out for Osama bin Laden, the U.S. military said Wednesday, as American and Pakistani forces step up operations against al Qaeda and Taliban militants along the Afghan-Pakistan frontier.

In the wake of the blowout about its involvement in the transmission of nuclear weapons technology, Pakistan has become more "cooperative" with US desires to clamp down on suspected militants in the mountains along the border with Afghanistan, becoming the "anvil" to the US's "hammer." It appears the US thinks the effort will actually - if eventually - prove productive.

Footnote to the Update: The same article says US military spoke of "renewed urgency" in hunting down bin Laden.

Hmmm.... I wonder what could be driving that?