Necessary footnote

Back on April 19, I mentioned reports from Iraqi newspapers hinting that opposition to al-Sadr was growing. Then, on Sunday I noted indications that Sadr was beginning to wear out his welcome in Najaf. Now this from Tuesday's New York Times:

[R]eports from inside Najaf said the growing anger of residents there against Mr. Sadr and his men, who have sown a pattern of lawlessness since their uprising in the city began this month, had taken a startling new turn, with a shadowy group killing at least five militiamen on Sunday and Monday.

Those reports, from residents who reached relatives in Baghdad by telephone, said the killers called themselves the Thulfiqar Army, after a two-bladed sword that Shiite tradition says was used by the patron saint of Shia, Imam Ali, the martyred son-in-law of the Prophet Muhammad. The group distributed leaflets in Najaf threatening to kill members of Mr. Sadr's Mahdi Army unless they fled Najaf immediately, according to accounts.

If the reports are accurate, this seems confirmation of what I've been saying about Sadr becoming politically isolated and "making it up as he goes along" even as he continues to be a potent symbol of resistance to occupation. It might be said that Sadr had no exit strategy.

Still, I can't call this a positive development; murder never is. In addition, it carries the risk of pushing Sadr into a confrontation: To the extent that there is an instinct in people, "fight" and "flight" are likely equally strong. But all too often, instinct plus pride gives "fight" the clear upper hand. The force that feels its position is deteriorating and sees no alternative to further decline is the force most likely to lash out.

That doesn't mean Najaf will turn into a bloodbath. It only means that the chances have increased.