Oh, well....

It looks like the referendum on the future of Cyprus being held on the island this coming Saturday will go down to defeat despite pressure from both the UN and the US.

The political parties of Greece are somewhat divided on the issue, with the opposition PASOK party urging a "yes" vote but the ruling party so far not taking a stand (although supposedly leaning to support for the referendum). Meanwhile, Turkey has been campaigning for Turkish Cypriots to vote yes. Frankly, both Greece and Turkey would just as soon be done with the whole business.

But what counts is the opinions on the island itself. Turkish Cypriots are apparently in favor of it despite the vehement opposition of veteran leader, Rauf Denktash. But according to polls, Greek Cypriots are overwhelmingly opposed to the plan, and it requires the support of both sides to pass. Turkey has threatened to go on a campaign for international recognition of the "breakaway" state on the northern part of the island, a "state" created by the Turkish army and now recognized only by Turkey itself.

I guess they'd better start fueling the jets.

Footnote One: Perhaps in expectation of the outcome, Turkey has sent thousands of soldiers and more weapons to Cyprus. Cypriot Defense Minister Koulis Mavronikolas said

[i]f this turned out to be the reinforcement of occupation troops and not their rotation, Cyprus would complain to international organizations.

And so it goes on....

Footnote Two: The United States has pledged $400 million Thursday to support a U.N. plan for reunifying Cyprus,

but stressed no money would come unless voters on the divided island approve the settlement in a referendum next week. ...

"Absolutely, it's conditional on a settlement," Natsios said. "If they don't approve it, there's nothing to implement."

This is called trying to buy an election. Bribery, I think is the term. On the other hand, we're not completely without feeling.

In Washington, State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said the United States would not leave Turkish Cypriots "out in the cold" if voters in that sector voted yes and Greek Cypriots voted no. He said he could not offer specifics.

I'll just bet.