Friday, April 16, 2004

Some news and a quick question

You've undoubtedly heard the news part.
Washington (AP) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits, after having fallen to the lowest level in four years, shot up last week by the biggest amount since late 2002. The new report dealt a setback to hopes that the economy is finally beginning to produce a sustained recovery in jobs.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that the number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits jumped by 30,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted level of 360,000.

The increase was far above the rise of 7,000 that economists had been expecting, but analysts cautioned against reading too much into a single week's change in the volatile series. Labor Department analysts noted that the period covered was the first week in a new quarter, a time when the jobless claims can be even more volatile.

The four-week moving average for new claims, viewed as a better gauge of trends because it smooths out some of the volatility, was up by a smaller 6,750 to 344,250, the highest level since early March.
Okay, the question: It's true that the four-week average gives a better picture than a one-week total - but why is that only mentioned when it makes things look better?

Actually, a second question: If a single number rather than an average over time is what counts, why was everyone sending up skyrockets over last month's job creation figure, especially without mentioning that it was affected by one-time events such as the end of the supermarket strike in California?

Or are these more questions that need only be asked?

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