Meanwhile, back at the ranch

Like everywhere the Bush doctrine stamps it's boot, it's two steps forward, two steps back in Afghanistan.

Back on January 6 I expressed praise and hope for the progress in Afghanistan marked by the adoption of a new constitution and the promise of elections, even as I expressed concerns about the chances of turning that hope into reality. Unhappily, it remains just that: a hope, not a reality, as the Guardian for June 12 indicates.

The elections in Afghanistan seem certain to be delayed for a second time.... The delay comes amid growing concern about the security of the election process after the killing on Thursday of 11 Chinese construction workers.

It is now impossible for the election to be held legally in September, the date for which both the interim government of President Hamid Karzai and the United Nations were aiming, itself a delay from the intended June polling day. It is understood that the new date is likely to be around October 5. ...

Even this date is by no means certain. If the security situation worsens or the registration process stalls because of violence and intimidation in the southern and south-eastern areas, a decision could be made to postpone the vote until next spring, although President [Hamid] Karzai is strongly committed to a vote this year.

Meanwhile, even though he is at this time the heavy favorite to win the presidency whenever elections do manage to come together, Karzai has

accepted the support of powerful mujahedeen leaders ... indicating he will continue an alliance with them in a future government. His move has dismayed many Afghans who were hoping that the nation's first democratic elections would herald an end to the power of the warlords, who have dominated politics for the past decade,

reported the New York Times last Sunday. While the article said Karzai insists he is opposed to a coalition government,

[i]mpartial observers say there is more involved than camaraderie among fellow former jihadis. "He knows it is the most important thing to make a bargain with the jihadis," said one Western diplomat. "He came to power with them, and he is not going to change the political dynamic," he said. ...

A coalition with the mujahedeen would prolong the many problems facing the government, [presidential candidate Massouda Jalal,] said. "With this coalition, the reconstruction of Afghanistan will not take place, collection of weapons will not take place, we will keep on having instability and anarchy, the unfairness of the current situation will not improve, and the free will of the people will not be implemented," she said.

"Technocrats" in the government are also cited as expressing worry that an alliance with the mujahedeen will result in a government lacking a genuine mandate and unable to pursue reforms.

This is taking place against the background of what AP on Sunday called "the bloodiest fighting this year" in Afghanistan, noting that since the spring both the US forces in the country, boosted by 2,000 this spring, and resistance fighters have ramped up their attacks.

Footnote, Good News and Bad News Dept.: The Guardian notes that

[o]n some levels the registration drive has been going well, said a UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan spokesman. An estimated 3.4 million people have now registered ... and women have registered in far higher numbers than expected, with at least a million enrolled.

In some provinces, including ones such as Herat regarded as conservative, women are accounting for almost half the registered voters.

However, that is still only a third of the desired number, and as AP notes, the UN team doing the registration "has yet to send voter registration teams into the most hostile areas." That is, the one-third gained so far has been the - you'll pardon the expression as it's only in comparison - easy part.

Footnote, Politics as Usual Dept.: The Guardian also notes that, shockingly,

not a single dollar pledged to pay for the elections has been given by donor countries, including members of the EU and the US.

Even if the $70m (£38m) pledged is given, there is still a shortfall in paying for the $101m costs of a proper election, an indication of how far the international community's attention has shifted away from Afghanistan since the official end of the hostilities.

That bit of amnesia, however, has not kept President Bushleague from pressing for elections in Afghanistan before November so he can point to them as a foreign policy victory. It really is all politics and perception to that crowd.