Remembering

A fragile peace in the Democratic Republic of Congo may be hanging by a thread.

One of the "forgotten wars," ethnic conflicts involving not only DR Congo but the nations surrounding it - Rwanda, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Namibia, and Angola - have torn at the country for years. Despite a ceasefire in July 1999 among six states and two rebel groups, bloodshed continued at such a level that by the fall of 2003 it was estimated that

[a]t least 3.3 million people, mostly women, children and the elderly, are estimated to have died because of the conflict, most from disease and starvation [and] more than 2.25 million people have been driven from their homes, many of them beyond the reach of humanitarian agencies

over the previous five years.

A series of pacts and negotiations finally resulted, last December, in the creation of a new army bringing together the rebel forces and local militias under a new interim government.

But an apparent coup attempt in March was followed at the beginning of this month by the seizure of the strategic town of Bukavu in western DR Congo by forces of a renegade general named Laurent Nkunda. UN peacekeepers, there to monitor the ceasefire rather than to be an effective fighting force, lost control of the town, leading to demonstrations outside UN headquarters in the capital of Kinshasa and the burning of UN vehicles in the eastern city of Kisangani by angry crowds.

Tension is running high. Nkunda initially denied his forces were moving toward Bukavu. Then, after taking the town, he agreed to leave it by Friday. He didn't. He then claimed that he had pulled "most" out by Friday, and would take the rest out on Sunday, which, according to late news, it seems he did, calling it "a show of goodwill," but also saying his men had completed their mission. However,

[a] second renegade commander, Col Jules Mutebusi, said his troops would remain in the town, which lies close to the border with Rwanda. The troops would stay in their camps, he said.

"This is our home and there is nowhere else for us to go," he told the Associated Press.

Both Mutebusi and Nkunda were part of the RCD, the largest rebel group in the civil war.

Meanwhile, fighting also broke out in the town of Walikale, 93 miles (150km) west of Bukavu. Initially, it was reported that Nkunda's forces were headed in that direction, but it appears the actual fighting started at the town itself between two factions of the new unified army, with former RCD members forcing out Mai Mai warriors. The Beeb says it's unclear if there is any connection between those former rebels and those who seized Bukavu. I have to admit I'm not sure which would worry me more: A connection, which implies a wider, coordinated effort by Nkunda, or no connection, which implies the spread of fighting by its own logic, without direction and therefore also without control, without a voice that can call it off.

The tribal and ethnic loyalties involved are deep, of long-standing, and for those reasons often will trump any loyalties to a distant, central, still-emerging government whose rule is determined by geography rather than family or bloodline. As some have pointed out, DR Congo is a large country, about as large as Western Europe, and fighting confined to one region may ultimately mean little. But the frustrated attacks on UN vehicles in the east, far from Bukavu, would seem to say that even isolated fighting may have not only a ripple effect but show a quantum effect of what Einstein called "spooky action at a distance," where an effect can just leap instantly from one place to another, seemingly without passing through the space between.

I said about three weeks ago that we should remember that there are places outside of Iraq and issues beyond the size of John Kerry's ad budget. Maybe we could spend a little more time realizing the world does not spin for us alone.

Update: According to the Guardian (UK) for June 4, the protests against the UN were far more extensive and violent than the BBC report indicated.

UN soldiers fired on rioters, killing two people, as violent protests against the international peacekeepers swept the Democratic Republic of Congo yesterday.

Mobs attacked UN compounds across the country, blaming the international mission for failing to stop the capture of an eastern town by renegade fighters.

In the capital, Kinshasa, police fired into the air and volleyed teargas at a massive mob which surged around the UN headquarters in the city centre, hurling rocks and chanting: "The state is dead! We will punish the United Nations ourselves!" ...

Thousands of protesters burned tyres and smashed cars as UN workers huddled inside bases across the sprawling central African country, taking the brunt of Congolese fury at the fall of Bukavu to two rebel commanders.

The Guardian also says that Nkunda's forces further inflaming anger by engaging in looting and rape in Bukavu before pulling out. At least in the short term, this is going to be ugly.