And up

One of the predictions of global climate change is that it will result in more storms of a more severe nature. Now, some scientists are openly suggesting that is no longer a prediction, it's a fact. Wired magazine for September 15 has the story:

Hurricane Ivan is among the most powerful Atlantic storms in recent history, and more such storms are likely in the future due to global warming, say climate experts.

"Global warming is creating conditions that (are) more favorable for hurricanes to develop and be more severe," said Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.

Hurricanes need the right conditions to form, but two basics are warm water and elevated water vapor levels. And global climate change is providing both right in the mid-Atlantic region where they form.

Water vapor or moisture in the air is the high-octane fuel of hurricanes. Oceans need to be 80 degrees Fahrenheit or more to produce enough water vapor for a hurricane to get started. New research by Trenberth's group has found that the average water vapor levels are now 15 percent higher on average in the hurricane zone than they were 20 or 30 years ago.

Will that result in more Category 4 or 5 storms? "That's the logical conclusion, although it may be somewhat controversial," Trenberth said.

While noting that warm water and high water vapor levels are just two of the ingredients hurricanes need, David Battisti, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington, said that global warming is greatly increasing the odds in favor of more intense and more frequent hurricanes and cyclones. "Where these storms will appear is very difficult to predict. Traditional hurricane zones may not see any increase while countries that have never experienced them will, he said."

Largely unnoticed in the attention focused on hurricanes is the record number of tornadoes the United States has experienced this year. The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency , or NOAA, says a record 173 tornadoes were reported in the month of August, 47 more than the previous record, set in 1979. Iowa has already experienced a record high of 110 tornadoes this year, when it's 30-year average is just 45.

As for thunderstorms "the evidence is very strong that their frequency and intensity has increased in the U.S.," said Trenberth.

More incidents of more severe weather. And the nay-sayers will continue to insist it's all one big coincidence.