Hey, it worked last time

The pattern of increasingly-frightening claims about the next target of neocon wrath continues - and the pace may even be accelerating. Just Wednesday the White House dropped any qualifiers like "suspected" about Iran's supposed "nuclear weapons program." Today, we get this from AP:

Interception of several technology shipments to Iran has bolstered U.S. suspicions that Iran is secretly developing an intercontinental ballistic missile that could threaten Europe and possibly the United States.

An intelligence report this week to Congress said North Korea, China and parts of the former Soviet Union provided Iran through the end of last year with ballistic-missile equipment, technology and expertise.

Omigod! They're gonna get The Bomb! And they're going to use it on us! Omigod!

And not even just nukes, either.

This week's intelligence report to Congress said, "Iran continued to vigorously pursue indigenous programs to produce nuclear, chemical and biological weapons" and that Iran "is also working to improve delivery systems."

Omigod! They have WMDs! And they're gonna use them on us! Omigod!

Diplomats told The Associated Press in Vienna, the headquarters of the International Atomic Energy Agency, that Iran may be hiding equipment bought by its military that could be used in a nuclear weapons program despite the promised freeze.

Iran also has not responded to or denied IAEA requests for inspections at or complete lists of components used at suspect military sites, the diplomats said.

Omigod! They're hiding things! Omigod! They're not cooperating with inspectors! Omigod! They're gonna get us! Omigod! We gotta get them first! Omigod!

Does any of this sound familiar? Any of it?

Now, I have no sympathy for the reactionary crackpot mullahs who are the real power in Iran. And I can and do entertain the possibility that Iran is being deceptive in its dealings and about its intentions. But I also entertain the notion that Iran, like most nations, like most people, may just really dislike the feeling of being bullied and is behaving more out of misplaced pride than a desire to manipulate and mislead the world community.

What's more, there were those who genuinely perceived a real threat from Iraq, who couldn't accept (or even admit to) the idea that Saddam was acting out of a sense of his own and Iraq's regional importance and a desire to secure that importance, rather than out of a desire to threaten others. Those same sort of people now are repeating that mistake, failing to consider the possibility that Iran, with the fall of Saddam, sees itself as the regional power in the Persian Gulf as well as the bearer of the ensign of true Islam and it only expects what it sees as its due for that position - without any intent to threaten or attack Israel or Europe, much less the US. (In fact, a case could easily be made that if Iran is indeed pursuing nuclear weapons, it's because the mullahs feel threatened by Israel - which does, after all, have a rather large nuclear arsenal - rather than that they seek to threaten it. We would call that classical deterrence if we were doing it.)

What all this means is that while I don't dismiss the possibility of aggressive intent on Iran's part - certainly its foot-dragging, its habit of last-minute exceptions to details, and its previous failure to honor a promise to freeze enrichment activity do give some basis for concern - I do think other explanations are more likely. And, more importantly, I believe that the bloodlust hawks circling the Oval Office really don't care if Iran's intentions are aggressive or defensive, honest or deceptive. They just want to build another case for another war.