The ground keeps shifting, another side

Someone else who is walking a fine line is Mahmoud Abbas, odds-on favorite in tomorrow's election for the presidency of the Palestinian Authority (PA). And like Sharon, the issue for Abbas is being able to act without generating a violent reaction from some among his own people.

Abbas is a tactical opponent of violence in the struggle against Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza. That is, he is not a pacifist; rather, he regards violent resistance as futile and counterproductive while accepting violent resistance to direct attack. He believes that political resistance and negotiation will gain the Palestinians more than mortar attacks and suicide bombings will.

But to pull that off, he needs to do more than win the presidency and more than make statements. He has to show the Israelis at least a significant reduction in violent attacks by Palestinians (which will require the cooperation of the militant factions) and show the Palestinians that his tactics will result in significant improvement of their poverty and deteriorating living conditions and as well as advancement of their hopes for their own homeland (which will require the cooperation of the Israelis). Thus, he is constantly addressing two very different audiences and emphasizing two very different aspects of his plans.

In his campaign he has taken dramatic stands on issues of deep concern to Palestinians and associated himself with militants. For example, on Monday he

promised Palestinian refugees they'll be able to return home one day - his most explicit comment yet on an explosive issue that has derailed peace talks in the past. ...

After embracing militant leaders in refugee camps and pledging to stand by the gunmen in their struggle to avoid capture by Israel, Abbas took an uncompromising stance on the refugee issue.

Addressing a rally in Gaza City, Abbas said Palestinian refugees and their descendants from the two-year war that followed Israel's creation in 1948 have the right to return to their original homes.

"We will never forget the rights of the refugees, and we will never forget their suffering. They will eventually gain their rights, and the day will come when the refugees return home," Abbas told the cheering crowd.

The "right of return" is a deeply emotional issue among Palestinians, something that no Palestinian official could afford to reject. By endorsing it, Abbas embraces that emotion.

However, note the use of the phrase "the day will come." This is a "someday" reference, a way of committing to an idea expressed as an ideal but leaving its fulfillment for an unspecified future time.

In an Associated Press interview in August, Abbas indicated flexibility. He said Palestinians might settle for a statement of responsibility from Israel for the refugee problem, followed by the return of a limited number of refugees. He said the numbers could be worked out in negotiations, a stand close to that of Israeli peace activists.

And, incidentally, also close to what Israeli intelligence held that Yasser Arafat thought about it.

The point here is that Abbas has to show the militants he can and will be tough and aggressive in dealing with the Israelis even in the absence of violence. He needs their cooperation, and his statements of support and endorsement are designed to win it. It will not be easy to obtain.

With Israeli tanks poised to sweep into northern Gaza on Sunday to put a stop to a wave of mortar and rocket attacks on Israel, Abbas called for an end to the barrage because it was giving Israel an excuse to invade.

In response, Hamas and several other groups released a joint statement demanding that Abbas apologize.

The groups called the statement "a stab in the back to the resistance ... because the resistance has proved that this is the only way to respond to the crimes of the occupation."

But obtain it he must if he is to do anything toward stopping the cycle of retaliation and counter-retaliation and counter-counter-retaliation that's a "friend only to the undertaker." And he has to do it without provoking Israel to reject him, as some already are doing, as "meet the new boss, same as the old boss" with who they refused to negotiate. So he comes on radical to the militants, pragmatic to the rest of the Palestinians, and a businesslike moderate to the international media. He's a political funambulist working, so far, without a net. But some, it seems, are trying to build him an economic one.

"I think that each side is tired of killing," said World Bank chief James Wolfensohn. "Each side has said to me they do not want to let this moment pass without giving it the maximum effort."

Possibly on the table is an extra $500 million a year from donors for the Palestinian Authority, a crucial boost to current funding of about $900 million a year.

It would be wise for others - other Palestinians, Israelis, the US - to look to building him a political one.