Take a breath

For the moment at least, the tension between Israel and the new Palestinian government of Mahmoud Abbas seems to have eased. At least a little.

Just over a week ago, Ariel Sharon was holding Abbas personally responsible for attacks on Israelis and declaring that he would not negotiate with the Palestinian Authority unless Abbas took direct action to dismantle what he calls a "terrorist infrastructure." That despite the fact that

Abbas has said he would try to negotiate with Palestinian militant groups to persuade them to agree to a formal cease-fire. Analysts said that attempting to disarm the groups by force could lead to bloody clashes with official Palestinian security organizations and possibly civil war.

Nevertheless, just a few days later,

Israeli officials accepted a Palestinian plan to deploy hundreds of police officers along the Gaza-Israel frontier starting Friday, in the first act of security cooperation with Israel under Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas.

Ultimately, about 2,000 were deployed. Meanwhile, Abbas, for his part, had been trying to reach a ceasefire by Palestinian militant groups, as he had promised.

The militants [said] they are ready to halt attacks, provided Israel stops military operations - a promise Israel has refused to make,

which always struck me as strange: I never understood why Israel could not say something like "Our military has acted only in the self-defense of our people. So if there are no attacks against us, there is no need for us to take any military action" rather than simply refusing to make any sort of promise at all.

But I need wonder no more, because on Wednesday, a "high-level source in Sharon's office" said pretty much exactly that, telling CNN "Wherever the area remains quiet there will not be any Israeli action." The option of acting against a "ticking time bomb" was left open, but the source said PA security would be given first dibs on acting.

Abbas's negotiations seem to have borne fruit, as both Hamas and Islamic Jihad

this week agreed to a "period of calm" if Israel does the same. There have been no reports of Qassam rockets or mortars being fired into Israel from Gaza since Thursday.

(I suspect the phrase "period of calm" was chosen so the two groups could continue to insist that they had never agreed to a "ceasefire." The things that are done in the name of diplomacy....)

Things are looking up enough that high-level contacts between Palestinian and Israeli officials have resumed and the prospects for a Sharon-Abbas summit now look good. The fact that all this happened so quickly and so soon after Sharon ordered an end to all contacts with Abbas's government, especially since Abbas's moves would seem to fall considerably short of Sharon's demand that he, again, "dismantle the infrastructure" of militant groups, re-raises something I've wondered about before: Was Sharon's tough talk and his quick-on-the-draw severing of relations more for domestic political consumption than for a Palestinian audience? In sight of what's transpired since, I can imagine Sharon over that week of broken contacts thinking of saying to Abbas "C'mon, guy, gimme something to work with here." (And maybe, for all we know, actually "saying" it to Abbas in undercover exchanges - in much more diplomatically-correct language, of course.)

The first test of this is happening now, as Palestinians in Gaza vote in municipal elections in which Hamas and Islamic Jihad are expected to do well. But the real test is yet to come. There will at some point be another attack. Everyone knows it or damn well should know it. It could be by Hamas. It could be by some now-unknown splinter group of a splinter group, furious with Hamas for agreeing to that "period of calm." It could be by Israel, claiming one of those "ticking time bombs." The question is, what happens then? That's when the test of sincerity comes, that's when the actual commitment to peace and a negotiated settlement arises.

So far, it has to be acknowledged even by Israel's most ardent supporters that Mahmoud Abbas has done exactly what he said he would do: He has negotiated a ceasefire - excuse me, a "period of calm" - with the main militant groups that have targeted Israeli civilians and military forces. And he is openly ready to negotiate with Israel. He has shown his good intentions, now it's time for Sharon to show his. The question that will soon arise is what does Abbas have to show for his efforts. Tempers are short and patience is low on both sides, and the worst answer to that question is "nothing."

Footnote: One aspect of this which has largely been overlooked but was a key to what has come so far is included in the al-Jazeera report:

Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas has given orders for members of resistance group al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades to be incorporated into the security services, a senior security official says.

"The decision has been made to put members of the al-Aqsa Brigades in the Palestinian security services," the official said.

"Abu Mazin [Abbas] told us that this must happen as soon as possible."

Before his election, Abbas spoke of co-opting the militants. Now, good as his word, he has made one of them part of his security forces, bringing them within the fold of the Palestinian Authority. It's a risky move, as it might set one militant group against another. But if it works, he will have both co-opted some among the militants and increased his own government's authority at a stroke.

Another Footnote: According to Reuters,

Israel says it will answer quiet with quiet and has shelved major military operations, but refused to stop selective raids.

Israel needs to realize, it's vital that it realizes, that this whole ceasefire, "period of calm," call it what you will, will not work if it appears to Palestinians that their resistance fighters - which is how they view the militants - are being killed with impunity. No one is asking or expecting the Israelis to wait until a bomber actually sets off the charge before acting - but the raids to capture wanted figures, the raids into the West Bank and Gaza, must stop if the truce is to survive.