Be careful what you wish for

Preliminary returns from the Iraqi elections show clearly who will be the dominant party in the new constitutional assembly: the Shiite-dominated United Iraqi Alliance lead by the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and the Dawa Party. The UIA has gotten about 2/3 of the vote from the 10 of Iraq's 18 provinces where vote counting is well along; the list lead by current prime minister Iyad Allawi is running a distant second.

While those 10 are ones where the UIA was expected to do well, the lead is so big that even as it shrinks as votes from other areas are tallied (as it no doubt will) it will still be the dominant force and could possibly have an absolute majority when the final results are announced, probably on Thursday.

In light of those results, says Monday's Christian Science Monitor,

slowly and cautiously, the leading Shiite politicians in the United Iraqi Alliance are beginning to lay out their political demands and expectations.

Iraq's next prime minister will probably be a member of their coalition - not Iyad Allawi, the current interim prime minister and America's favorite. And Islam, they say, will play a bigger role in government than ever before in modern Iraq.

What they mean by "a bigger role" is spelled out more in Sunday's New York Times:

With religious Shiite parties poised to take power in the new constitutional assembly, leading Shiite clerics are pushing for Islam to be recognized as the guiding principle of the new constitution. ...

At the very least, the clerics say, the constitution should ensure that legal measures overseeing personal matters like marriage, divorce and family inheritance fall under Shariah, or Koranic law. ...

On other issues, opinion varies, with the more conservative leaders insisting that Shariah be the foundation for all legislation. ...

[But] the clerics generally agree that the constitution must ensure that no laws passed by the state contradict a basic understanding of Shariah as laid out in the Koran. Women should not be treated as the equals of men in matters of marriage, divorce and family inheritance, they say. Nor should men be prevented from having multiple wives, they add.

One tenet of Shariah mandates that in dividing family property, male children get twice as much as female children.

"We don't want to see equality between men and women because according to Islamic law, men should have double of women," said Muhammad Kuraidy, a spokesman for Ayatollah Yacoubi. "This is written in the Koran and according to God."

This has come up before; just over a year ago, the Iraqi Governing Council tried to impose Sharia law about family matters. Women's groups protested and, perhaps more importantly, the US had the power to simply veto the idea, so it died. Now, however, while it obviously still has considerable leverage, the US is at least technically out of the picture and not really in a political position to dictate terms. Last March I suggested that Shiites were willing to compromise on matters like an interim constitution and an interim government, even though they were not the result of the direct elections they wanted, because they were biding their time, figuring that at some point the system would enable them to achieve the position of authority they felt was their due by virtue of being the majority. Now, they may well be thinking, that moment is at hand.

The leading Shiite clerics say they have no intention of taking executive office and following the Iranian model of wilayat al-faqih, or direct governance by religious scholars. But the clerics also say the Shiite politicians ultimately answer to them, and that the top religious leaders, collectively known as the marjaiya, will shape the constitution through the politicians.

"Don't worry: We won't hold offices, we'll just control things from behind the scenes." Pretty cold comfort for those who got used to living in Saddam Hussein's Iraq, probably the most secular nation in the Middle East. And in fact,

[s]ome effects are already being felt locally. In Basra, the second-largest city in Iraq, where one of Ayatollah Sistani's closest aides has enormous influence, Shiite religious parties have been transforming the city into an Islamic fief since the toppling of Mr. Hussein. Militias have driven alcohol sellers off the streets. Women are harassed if they walk the streets in anything less than head-to-toe black. Conservative judges are invoking Shariah in some courts.

There are, of course, any number of reasons why this might not come off as intended: US opposition (a constitution establishing an Islamic government that openly declares the authority of God to oppress women is not exactly the example Shrub wants to hold up to the world as his great achievement for "freedom"), Sunni opposition, opposition from women's groups and secularists - it's even possible the UIA could fracture during the negotiating and jockeying for position.

And then there is the often-forgotten party, the Kurds.

Kurdish political leader Jalal Talabani said he would seek the office of either president or prime minister when the National Assembly convenes[, AP reported last Thursday].

"We as Kurds want one of those two posts and we will not give it up," Talabani, head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, said at a news conference alongside the other main Kurdish leader, Massoud Barzani.

The Shiites, probably unable to force a constitution through over Kurdish opposition, could possibly buy them off, if you will, with the largely-ceremonial presidency and some guarantees regarding autonomy. It would limit their ability to impose Sharia on the Kurds or dominate them in other ways, but I doubt that's a fight they want to take on in any event.

And so the outlines of what we have wrought at a cost of over 100,000 lives and nearly $200 billion are becoming clearer and sharper, looking ever-more like the jagged edges of shattered glass, bloodying everyone who comes near. Congratulations, Georgie. That's one hell of a legacy.