Revolution reversal

The situation in Kyrgyzstan, the site of the latest "people's uprising," has taken an odd turn. The crisis was sparked by widespread charges of fraud in voting for a new assembly, in which only a handful of opposition candidates won seats. As the BBC notes,

In the early 1990s, Kyrgyzstan's democratic credentials were regarded as relatively strong. This reputation was subsequently lost as corruption and nepotism took hold. Parliamentary and presidential elections of recent years have been flawed, opposition figures have faced harassment and imprisonment while opposition newspapers have been closed.

Combine that with a floundering economy that has seen unemployment, malnutrition, and poverty rising rapidly, stir in some ethnic tension between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks, and you have a situation that required only a spark - and the election provided it.

The charges of fraud generated an explosion of protest drawing on the frustrations of the preceding years. Within days, President Askar Akayev was gone.

In the immediate aftermath of the protests, the Supreme Court annulled the poll results and said the previous parliament had authority.

It seemed the protestors had won. They had demanded

a rerun of the elections - the same solution that ended Ukraine's similar crisis last December - as well as tough measures to take back the "peoples' wealth" allegedly stolen by the Akayev family during its kleptocratic 15-year rule.

With the Supreme Court decision in their pocket, the opposition was riding high.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the victory party: The two parliaments, the previously-sitting one and the newly-elected one, both claimed legitimacy. Both wound up sitting in the legislative hall. And each had support from some of the leaders of the fractured opposition. And on Monday, the old parliament gave in. As CBC (Canada) put it on Monday, the lower house "conceded defeat."

Half of Kyrgyzstan's old parliament agreed to step down Monday, four days after those politicians and a group of politicians elected to succeed them in disputed elections earlier this month both claimed the right to rule.

Ishenbai Kadyrbekov, the chamber's Speaker, said the lower house was suspending its activity "in the interests of the people, and so that the acting president [Kurmanbek Bakiyev] will not face two rival legislatures."

The new parliament moved quickly to cement its position, naming interim leader Kurmanbek Bakiev as prime minister, who in response threw his weight behind the incoming parliament. Meanwhile, the speaker of the new parliament said a new election for president could not be held until

after talks had been held with Mr Akayev, because he had not formally resigned. "Otherwise it will be another anti-constitutional move," Omurbek Tekebayev said.

Significantly, while Bakiyev had been acting president as well as prime minister, the new parliament did not confirm him in the latter role. It was argued it was "unconstitutional" for him to hold both posts but suspicion can't help but linger that the intention was to leave open the option of Akayev returning to resume the office.

The Christian Science Monitor noted on Tuesday that it was a matter of

patch[ing] together a compromise ... ending - at least for now - the uncertainty and legal limbo following the overthrow of President Askar Akayev last Thursday.

But the deal, which will legitimize a new parliament allegedly elected by fraudulent means, appears to undo the main achievement of the "tulip revolution" - infuriating many of the same protesters who helped topple the government - and could even create a fresh role for the deposed and self-exiled Mr. Akayev. ...

The new legislature, heavily stacked with Akayev supporters - including the president's son and daughter - is widely despised by opposition activists, several hundred of whom gathered outside the parliament Monday to protest.

"They have stolen the peoples' victory," says Alla Shabayeva, a protest organizer. "This new government is turning out just like the old one. If they don't do what the people want, we will stage a second revolution." ...

"We want a parliament chosen honestly, without bribes and manipulation, to represent the peoples' will. Isn't that what we fought for?," said Saginbek Mambekov, a musician who says he was in the thick of the revolution.

At this point it does appear that "opposition" leaders, or at least enough of them, were more interested in securing a place for themselves in the government than in bringing to actual power the opposition on whose behalf they supposedly spoke.

(Besides Bakiyev, there is Felix Kulov, released from prison by protestors during the uprising. He'd been jailed five years ago on what his supporters say were trumped-up charges because he was a rival to Akayev. He was

given temporary charge of law enforcement, and moved quickly to quell rioting and looting in the capital. "Kulov has done a brilliant job for himself," says Stuart Kahn, Kyrgyzstan program director for Freedom House, a nonpartisan group partly funded by the US.

"He looks like the hero, he saved Bishkek from the looters," says Mr. Kahn.

He and Bakiyev are political rivals who may clash for supremacy, generating another source of conflict.)

Whether that seeming betrayal leads to sullen acceptance or renewed strife remains to be seen. As Deutsche Welle (Germany) said,

the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), fears that Monday's bizarre twist will only underscore uncertainty and possibly spark new violence. ...

"The political situation in this country has improved, but the crisis is not yet over," said OSCE representative Alojz Peterle.

Footnote: Surely surprisingly to some among us, one of the better sources of objective information on nations of the world is the CIA's World Factbook. The entry on Kyrgyzstan is here. Also, the CBC has a backgrounder here.