Catching up, two

Corrected The parliamentary elections in Lebanon, the first since the Syrian withdrawal, are set for their final phase on Sunday. I considered some of the issues and factors back on March 30 so now's as good a time as any to see how things appear to be shaking out.

The elections for the 128-seat parliament are carried out in four stages, with elections on separate dates in the south, around Beirut, the east, and finally, on Sunday, in the north. Different parties, often representing different ethnic or religious groups, have strength in different regions depending on the local demographics. The first two rounds were so anti-climactic, the Daily Star (Lebanon) said, that Lebanese looked forward to the third, tightly contested, round as having some meaning. In the first round, in the south, Hizbollah, still honored by many in southern Lebanon as being responsible for driving Israeli forces out of the area, and its pro-Syrian allies swept the elections. In the next stage, around Beirut, the anti-Syrian alliance headed by Saad al-Hariri won overwhelmingly. Hariri is the son of Rafik al-Hariri, the former prime minister whose assassination on February 14 touched off the massive demonstrations that lead to the Syrian withdrawal.

Until recently, it looked like the anti-Syrian side was set for a clear victory overall and a large majority in parliament. That was thrown into question by the former warlord Michel Aoun, who returned to Lebanon just five weeks ago. He had been in exile for 15 years after he was driven out of the country by Syrian troops in a battle that ended Lebanon's 15-year civil war. Regarded as staunchly anti-Syrian, he stunned his erstwhile alliance partners by jumping over to support a pro-Syrian alliance after the opposition promised his grouping what he regarded as an insufficient number of seats, Reuters reported on Friday.

Despite being called a "small tool" of Syria by opposition leader Walid Jumblatt, Aoun lead his slate to a solid showing in the third round of balloting, leaving the anti-Syrian bloc needing to take 21 of the 28 seats up for grabs on Sunday to obtain a majority in parliament. That's certainly not impossible for Hariri's alliance of Sunni Muslims, Christians and Druze, since over half of the voters in the north are Sunnis and about 45% are Christians. Still, the pro-Syrian list endorsed by Aoun includes interior minister Suleiman Franjieh, a Maronite Christian with strong clan links in the north.

If Hariri falls short of a national majority, parliament will be split into three main groups - his anti-Syrian movement, the pro-Syrian group dominated by Shi'ite Muslim groups Hizbollah and Amal, and Aoun and his followers.

Aoun has thus set himself up as a potential king-maker with something to offer both sides: the anti-Syrian supporting a pro-Syrian slate.

In his first comments [after the third stage of the elections], Aoun said he was willing to talk with other factions in the new parliament and if there were no agreement he and his allies would be in opposition "carrying out our duties."

I'm sure he's willing. Once before he tried to set himself up as the head of a separate government in Lebanon. Dreams of power have a habit of dying hard. Lebanon's crisis is not over and I suspect will not be over even if Hariri's bloc does get that absolute majority it's after.

Footnote: One other detail tossed into the mix. On Friday, just two days before that final round of balloting, UN investigators declared there is "a probability of 99.9 percent" that the explosion that killed Rafik Hariri was above ground - likely a truck bomb.

This matters because

[s]ome anti-Syrian Lebanese have speculated the explosives used in the bombing were buried under the street - an act that would suggest the complicity of pro-Damascus officials, since digging up the street would draw attention and require permits. ...

In the campaign, opposition leaders, including Hariri's son, Saad, have touted the assassination as an example of the need to vote against pro-Syrian candidates. The opposition has accused Syria and its allies in the Lebanese security services of killing Hariri, a charge they denied.

A UN fact-finding mission had previously faulted both Lebanese and Syrian security for "the lack of security, protection, law and order in Lebanon," but placed no blame for the actual killing. To whatever extent the new finding undermines people's confidence in the charges of the opposition, to that same extent it favors others - likely Aoun. I think it unlikely it will actually make any difference, but if it does, whatever difference it makes will not be good news for Hariri's hopes for a clearly anti-Syrian parliament.

Corrected by changing the day for the final round of voting in the first paragraph to the correct "Sunday." There were also a few grammatical corrections and a few changes for clarity.