Grimness

Updated AP tells us that speaking to a group of legislators gathered in Grapevine, Texas on Wednesday,

President Bush lamented the deaths of 14 Marines in Iraq Wednesday, calling the deadly attack a "grim reminder" America is still at war.

Beyond noting that he may have been the only adult in America who needed reminding, I'd have to say that while it was painful and sad, death almost always is, "grim" is not the word I'd use. If he wants "grim," maybe he should try this:

A couple of weeks ago, July 19 to be precise, Iraq Body Count, in association with the Oxford Research Group, published "A Dossier on Civilian Casualties in Iraq, 2003-2005." It

is the first detailed account of all non-combatants reported killed or wounded during the first two years of the continuing conflict[, the groups said in a press release]. The report ... is based on comprehensive analysis of over 10,000 media reports published between March 2003 and March 2005.

It reported that nearly 25,000 civilians were reported killed and at least 42,500 wounded in the first two years following the invasion. Nearly twice as many were killed in year two (March 2004-March 2005) as in year one (March 2003-March 2004). US-led forces killed four times as many civilians (37% of the total) as insurgents (9%).

John Sloboda, one of the report's authors, noted that "on average, 34 ordinary Iraqis have met violent deaths every day since the invasion of March 2003. ... [N]early two and half years on, neither the US nor the UK governments have begun to systematically measure the impact of their actions in terms of human lives destroyed."

Not grim enough? How about the fact that Iraq Body Count, by its own acknowledgement (indeed, its own insistence) takes a very conservative, cautious approach to the numbers, relying on news reports and eyewitness accounts of deaths. Other methodologies, using a wider range of sources, including reports from Iraqi hospitals, and counting all deaths resulting from the invasion, not just noncombatants, come up with a far higher number. Shortly before the IBC report, UPI said that

[a]n Iraqi humanitarian organization is reporting that 128,000 Iraqis have been killed since the U.S. invasion began in March 2003. ...

[The] chairman of the 'Iraqiyun humanitarian organization in Baghdad, Dr. Hatim al-'Alwani, said that the toll includes everyone who has been killed since that time, adding that 55 percent of those killed have been women and children aged 12 and under. ...

The 128,000 figure only includes those whose relatives have been informed of their deaths and does not include those were abducted, assassinated or simply disappeared.

It's worth noting that this figure tracks fairly well with the 100,000 "excess deaths" reported in the Lancet last October. However, the UPI story does say that the figure conflicts with that of the IBC - but also notes that

[t]he number includes those who died during the U.S. assaults on al-Fallujah and al-Qa'im,

which could explain a good part of the difference: First, remember that IBC only counts civilian deaths, those that could be identified as noncombatants. The larger figure includes everyone killed in the wake of the invasion, combatants and noncombatant alike. Second, IBC, using its conservative approach, acknowledges its numbers about Fallujah in particular are incomplete: "The full human cost has yet to be calculated."

That's actually true about most everything in Iraq: The Washington Post said last week that a GAO report revealed that

[d]espite $5.7 billion committed to restoring electricity service in Iraq, power generation was still at lower levels as of May than it had been before the U.S. invasion in 2003. ...

Crude oil production has also dropped in the past two years, even with more than $5 billion in U.S. and Iraqi funds available for rebuilding. Oil export revenue is needed to fund more than 90 percent of the nascent Iraqi government's 2005 budget, the State Department has said. [emphasis added]

Oh, and remember all those wonderful videos of schools being repaired? In a separate report, the Office of the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction said that

[i]n 2004, USAID planned to build 286 schools by the end of the year, but because of contractor and security problems, it had finished only eight by September....

Yes, that is grim.

STDD/GTHO

Footnote: The GAO says that the government doesn't know how much it spends on private security contractors and the Inspector General's report says that more money than necessary may be going into the pockets of government contractors involved in reconstruction. Imagine what Shrub would be saying if this were a welfare program or environmental program with these kinds of accounting controls.

Updated to include the fact that the number from 'Iraqiyun includes all deaths, not just noncombatants, an important detail I inadvertently omitted.