And the good times just keep on rolling

An addendum to my assertion a few days ago that Iraqis are aware of the fact that our presence in their country is making things worse.

Jobs gone and schools closed. Marriages delayed and children mourned. Markets bombed and clean water in short supply. Speaking freely now a dangerous act.

And hope lost.

Four years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, Iraqis describe daily lives that have been torn apart by spiraling violence and a faltering economy. The bursts of optimism reported in a 2004 public-opinion survey taken a year after the invasion and another in 2005 before landmark legislative elections have nearly vanished.

So says USA Today in opening its report on the results of an international media poll of Iraqis taken in late February and early March. Four outlets - USA TODAY, ABC News, the BBC, and German TV network ARD - cooperated on the survey, which found "a nation that in large measure has fragmented into fear."

The results are almost staggeringly stark. For example, on every one of ten measures of personal life, ranging from the security situation to a family's economic condition to the electricity supply, a majority of respondents said it was "bad." What's more, on each measure the proportion saying it was bad outstripped those in an ABC poll from November 2005 by anywhere from 15 to 34 percentage points. (Sidebar: There were actually 13 areas, as shown in the complete survey results, available here in .pdf format, but only 10 are displayed in the accompanying graphics, apparently because three areas were not covered in the earlier survey and so no trend could be stated. However, in every one of the 13 areas, "a majority rated conditions as bad. In not a single case did a majority predict things would get better in the next year.")

Overall,

[s]ix in 10 Iraqis say their lives are going badly. Only one-third expect things to improve in the next year.

That represents a dramatic deterioration in just 16 months, a reflection of how the security situation and quality of life in Iraq have unraveled.

What's really striking about the results and carries import for Iraq's future is the dramatic difference in views along ethnic and religious lines. For example, on the question of the future structure of Iraq, given three choices - a unified Iraq, regional states (i.e. a federation of some type), and independent states - a whopping 97% of Sunni Arabs went for a unified state but only 20% of Kurds. (Shia Arabs were more diverse, dividing up 41%-40%-19% among the three options.)

For another example, when asked how they feel about whether the national government is doing a good job or a bad job in carrying out its responsibilities, 68% of Shias and 71% of Kurds picked "good" - but only 6% of Sunnis. Meanwhile, a majority of Shias and two-thirds of Kurds say their life is, overall, "good" but only 7% of Sunnis do - a difference that persists into predictions of how things will be in a year.

On a different divide, only 17% of Shias and a mere 3% of Sunnis say they approve of US forces in Iraq - but 75% of Kurds do.

Even where things initially look good, they're not:

In the USA TODAY/ABC News Poll, Iraqis by 43%-36% said life was better than before the invasion. That's a decline from the optimism in the November 2005 survey, however, when by 51%-29% Iraqis said life was better.

The article and its related links have more on the often unspoken costs of war.

Four years of upheaval have taken a toll on Iraqis' mental health. Most report symptoms of post-traumatic stress. Three in four say they have feelings of anger and depression, trouble sleeping and difficulty concentrating on work.

It's become a nation of people afraid to go to market, to travel, to go to work, even to leave their homes or to speak truthfully about themselves.

People who regret having had children.

Many Iraqis have curtailed their ambitions for their children, and some yearn to leave their native land. Three in 10 say they would move to a different country if they could. Not quite half of those say they are making plans to go.

And it's become a land where even trying to find out what people think carries risks. That, too, is the legacy of our war.

Footnote: According to the latest CNN/Opinion research poll, Americans, too, are expressing "starkly" different opinions about the war from those they held when it began.

- The proportion "confident" about the war has dropped from 83% when the war started to 35% now.
- Those who say they are "proud" of the war has dropped from 65% to 30% over that same time.
- Some 68% of Americans said Iraq was worth fighting over when it started; that percentage has almost flipped: Now, 61% say it was not worth it.
- At the time of the invasion, 72% supported the war. That was down to 48% by March 2004 and has sunk to just 32% now - less than half the original figure.
- "Twice as many Americans believe the United States is losing ground compared to the number of people who think progress is being made."

And protests continue, some including civil disobedience.

One other interesting note is that support for the war in Afghanistan - the one of which all good liberals and progressives approve - also has seen a considerable decline. In 2001, 88% of those polled said they supported the attack. Now it's around 53%, and 55% say that war is "going badly."

Another Footnote: Another question in the poll of Iraqis related to the effect of "outside influences" - specifically, the roles of Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, the UK, and the US. For each, people were asked,was their influence positive, negative, or neutral?

The US, not surprisingly, got only 12% of respondents saying its influence is positive - but, perhaps surprisingly, that was not the lowest ranking; Syria, at 7% positive, got that. Saudi Arabia had the highest percentage of positive ratings, and that was only 20%.

The US and UK, again not surprisingly, got the highest negative ratings, with 77% and 75% responding that way, respectively - but, again perhaps surprisingly, majorities also said that Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Syria are having a negative influence. Opinion on Turkey was essentially evenly divided and Russia's influence was regarded by nearly three-fourths as neutral.