The Erickson Report, Page 3: Kenya and Somalia

The Erickson Report, Page 3: Kenya and Somalia

An on-going dispute over maritime territory between Kenya and Somalia has sent diplomatic relations between the two countries on a steep decline since early 2019.

The disputed territory is 100,000 square kilometrers, or about 40,000 square miles, in the Indian Ocean, an area which offers prospects of vast oil and natural gas deposits - in other words, lots and lots of bucks.

The predictable result has been major western countries lining up behind one or the other of the two countries, depending on which of the two best serves their oil interests.

The dispute dates back some years, but became sharper in 2014, when Somalia sued Kenya at the International Court of Justice, asking the court to order a redrawing of the sea boundary in Somalia’s favor. The hearings were scheduled to start on September 3, but Kenya successfully petitioned the court to adjourn the case until this next June.

Things got even tenser in February, when Kenya accused Somalia of putting Kenya’s blocks up for auction during the February Somalia Oil and Gas conference in London.

Somalia half-rebutted Kenya’s claims: It hadn't put the blocks up for auction, but it had submitted bidding rules and procedures and displayed a map of oil and gas blocks it intended to auction in future.

Following the London oil conference, Kenya recalled its ambassador to Somalia and asked the Somali ambassador in Kenya to “depart for consultations.” In other words, "Get out."

Different western nations are supporting different sides in the dispute.

The UK, for example, has shown support for Somalia, both because UK-Kenya relations have been sour for several years and because Britain has a longer relationship with Somalia in terms of onshore and offshore oil explorations.

Norway is also backing Somalia, perhaps partly because Somalia’s Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khayre is a Norwegian citizen and partly because Kenya expelled a Norwegian oil company.

The US, on the other hand, is siding with Kenya because the two are supposedly partners in the “war on terror” and the fact that the Kenyan government has recently gravitated towards America and China as relations with the UK declined.

And France is on Kenya’s side because the French oil company Total Oil has already contracted with Kenya over an area in the disputed maritime zone.

Writing at The Conversation, Patrick Muthengi Maluki of the Institute of Diplomacy and International Studies at the University of Nairobi said that Kenya and Somalia need to cooperate for their mutual benefit.

Unfortunately, what Kenya and Somalia want may not have a lot to do with what ultimately happens.