063 The Erickson Report for October 6 to 19, Page 4: Brief comments on Iran and Ukraine

I am not going to try to cover news about Iran. It's one of those cases where events change too quickly and there is no way a show on once every two weeks could keep up. Anything I say here would be obsolete even before you hear it.

But I did want to take a moment to express my profound respect and admiration for the massive crowds whose nonviolent protests have shaken the grounds of Iranian society and even government. They have braved beatings and bullets - over 150 have been killed, hundreds more injured, thousands arrested - and while they may not achieve their goals of a more open society in the face the proven willingness of the Ayatollahs to unleash even greater violence in the face of a challenge, still they stand as evidence that Iran will change.  

As put by Kasra Aarabi, the Iran Program Lead at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, "unrestrained violence against unarmed civilians [may] quash the protests this time around," but

the mood on the streets is explicitly revolutionary. They don't want reform, they want regime change. Of course, no one can predict when this moment will happen: it could be weeks, months or even years. But the Iranian people have made up their mind."

Believe it: As even the Ayatollahs must know in their hearts, change will come.

The other thing I'm not going to discuss, for the same reason (events changing too rapidly), is Ukraine.

But I do want to make one observation: There has been much discussion about the danger of Russia - that is, Vladimir Putin (or, as I call him, Pukin') - to escalate to nuclear weapons if things continue to go badly for him. But there is another danger that should be considered, this one coming from Ukraine, specifically from Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has specifically barred any negotiations to end the war so long as Putin is in power.

I said before the war started that given nations' unfortunate historical preference for war over humiliation, the reality is, if in a confrontation you don't want a war, you have to give the other side a way to back out without appearing to back down. The same applies to ending a war.

I'm sure Zelenskyy is happily envisioning a coup overthrowing Putin, one lead by a group eager to offer Ukraine concessions up to and including forswearing any claims to Crimea. But I wonder if he is really giving full consideration to the increased risk to which he is subjecting his people with such an uncompromising attitude along with the question of what there is still to be gained that is worth the predictable cost.

The Ameerican pacifist A. J. Muste once said "The problem with war isn't with the loser but the winner. Who is going to teach them that might does not make right?" Now that things appear to be going his way, that's a question Volodymyr Zelenskyy should be asking himself.