Immigrant roulette

This smells of a Karl Rove job: something that looks good on the surface, plays well to a select voting block, and ultimately doesn't mean a damned thing.

George W Bush has called for a major overhaul of US law to give legal status to millions of illegal workers.

The plans would allow some of America's undocumented immigrants - at least eight million, 60% Mexican - to work legally in the US for a fixed period. ...

Bush's proposals
- Allows estimated 8m illegal immigrant workers chance to work legally in the country for a fixed period
- Will gain legal status for an initial period of three years if can prove they have jobs
- Will be able to travel freely between US and their home countries
- Workers can apply for guest worker status at a US company if it is proved no US citizen can take the job
- Can apply for green card giving permanent residency in US, although Mr Bush said there would be no special preference for such workers

Now, bear in mind in what follows that about 140,000 employer-related Green Cards, allowing for legal permanent resident status, are available each year. Administration officials are talking about a "modest increase" in that number, so let's be extremely generous and say they nearly double it to 250,000 per year. Anyone who wants legal residence in the US, whether they are now in a foreign country or are here without documents, would have to compete for one of those 250,000 slots.

What's being proposed here is a "guest worker" program reminiscent of the Bracero program of the '50s and '60s. Undocumented workers would become "legal" if they currently have a job for which no US citizen is available - the trick here being that the administration maintains that if they have the job, it by definition means that no US citizen is available. The "marketplace test" has been passed, in the words of a "senior government official."

After three years, those workers would have three options: Go back to their home country, get renewed for another three years as a guest worker (assuming the program, once implemented, is renewed), or have gotten one of the 420,000 to 750,000 Green Cards issued during that time (the latter figure based on my generous assumption about an increase). Now, of course the way undocumented workers stay here now is by staying out of sight, off the radar. Entering the program would make them identifiable and traceable, and therefore easier to deport.

So what we have is a program that proposes to take maybe eight million undocumented workers (the US Chamber of Commerce estimates the number is actually over ten million) and "legalize" them for three years, during which time they will have to compete with everyone else anywhere who wants to come to the US to live, for maybe a half-million chances to stay longer. How many of those workers are going to risk such odds? I think damn few. And those that do will find themselves part of a rotating army of minimum-wage slaves, easily replaced when their "guest" privileges are used up and thus keeping those wages low. (No wonder the COC has been campaigning for such a program.)

However, I don't think pleasing the COC was Bus - er, Rove's intention here. They already have enough to be pleased with. No, this was done because they think it's

likely to play well among Spanish-speaking Americans, an important source of votes, the BBC's Adam Brookes in Washington says.

Some Hispanic groups remain cautious, however.

"We fear this is political positioning and we really want to see some sincere policy outcomes and see something that really helps the immigrant community and not just the Bush campaign," said Michele Waslin of the National Council of La Raza. ...

And those working in the field of immigration law also expressed doubts.

"The hype and misinformation that this speech will fuel in the immigrant community will be huge. Unfortunately, the excitement will far outweigh the real effect," Jeff Goldman, an immigration lawyer with Boston law firm Testa, Hurwitz and Thibeault told Reuters.

But so long as the "real effect" isn't felt until after November, 2004, the folks who came up with this just don't give a flying damn.

Footnote: Josh Marshall at TalkingPointsMemo has a transcript of a briefing two "senior government officials" gave the day before the plan was announced. It's long but well worth the effort because it shows just how few real details there are and to that same extent just how much of a PR stunt it is.