Monday, January 26, 2004

A glimmer

Cyprus, an island nation strategically located in the eastern Mediterranean, has seen a number of rulers over the past centuries. In 1960, it obtained its independence from Great Britain and became a member of the United Nations.

Unfortunately, the initial constitution "contained functional shortcomings, which led to deadlocks and to the intercommunal clashes of 1963/64." (Intercommunal here meaning between the Greek and Turkish communities that make up almost all of the island's population.) On July 15, 1974, Cyprus suffered a coup fomented by the military junta then ruling Greece. Five days later, using the pretext of "protecting" Turkish communities, Turkey invaded and occupied the northern third of the island.

Attempting to legitimize the invasion, in 1983 the "Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus" was declared - but it was recognized only by Turkey and was almost immediately condemned by the UN Security Council.

(The above summary is drawn from the website of the permanent mission of Cyprus to the UN.)

The generals have long since been kicked out the government of Greece, the effects of the coup on the island long since undone - but 30,000 Turkish troops remain, occupying 37% of the territory of Cyprus. Numerous peace plans have come and gone, long negotiations have started and stopped, the last time based on a 2002 UN plan with talks grinding to a halt last March - and still the troops remain.

But still there is a glimmer of hope. The BBC for January 25 reports that
Turkey has asked for the United Nations to complete a peace plan for the divided Mediterranean island of Cyprus.

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has called on the UN to appoint a new high-level mediator from a neutral country to help revive the talks.

It follows his earlier meeting with the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland. ...

The first signs of a breakthrough in the deadlocked talks came before this weekend's meeting when the Turkish military said it was prepared to accept the last UN plan as a basis for negotiations.
That's a breakthrough because it immediately establishes a structure to hang an agreement on. While there are still a lot of things to be worked out, some of them - like the return of 180,000 Greek Cypriots to northern Cyprus - still contentious, at least now the talks can be about the arrangements of rooms and walls instead of whether you're trying to build a house, a steel mill, or a barn.

Now, if I was going to be cynical - which I often am - I'd wonder if this has less to do with some sudden humanitarian impulse on the part of the Turkish government that it does with Ankara's concern about a federated Iraq with an autonomous Kurdistan (which it has declared it will prevent) and doesn't want to be in the position of advocating a separate state in Cyprus while demanding unification in Iraq.

But nah, governments don't actually think that way, do they?

Update January 27: Not surprisingly, the Greeks have a different take on this. In its Sunday edition, the Greek newspaper Kathimerini noted the Turkish proposal called for
a resumption of reunification talks "to rapidly reach a solution that takes the Annan plan as a reference and is based on the realities of the island." This indicated persistence with Turkish-Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash’s stand that the breakaway state he leads in northern Cyprus must be recognized.

Cypriot Foreign Minister George Iacovou said the Turkish call was "a small step forward but at the same time it is a tactical maneuver so Turkey is not solely blamed for the current deadlock." Greek Foreign Ministry spokesman Panos Beglitis said talk of a solution based on the "realities" of the island was outside the UN framework.
On the other hand, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan pronounced himself "very encouraged by the message" from Turkey" but apparently was considering whether it met his demand for the "necessary political will" to resume talks aimed at reunifying Cyprus.

Second update, January 29: I shoulda stayed cynical. According to Kathimerini for January 28, Turkey has taken a big step backwards from its expressed willingness to reopen negotiations. For one,
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan ... yesterday referred to the UN blueprint for Cyprus's reunification as a "reference point" and not the basis for negotiations.
Further, Turkey now proposes that Cypriots hold a referendum on the UN plan, reversing its previous position, shared with Greece, that such a referendum should follow, not precede, negotiations.

One step forward, one step back.

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