Thursday, September 23, 2004

Blue light special!

"Then what's it for?" - Doctor Who, "The Pirate Planet"
Israeli military officials say the United States will sell Israel nearly five-thousand smart bombs.

Israel's announcement came after the U-S Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress of a possible military sale to Israel worth as much as 319 million dollars.

An Israeli newspaper (Haaretz) says Israel would buy the weapons with military aid from the U-S.
I mean this as a serious question: What use, what need, does Israel have for 5,000 smart bombs, or as they're more properly called, precision-guided munitions?

Israel has used smart bombs in assassination attempts against Palestinian militants - but they're very clumsy weapons for targeting individuals and likely to produce a lot of "collateral damage," something like using a baseball bat to swat a bug. And even if that was the intent, 5,000 of them?

There is another possibility, which I find more ominous:
Israeli military officials won't say whether the bombs might be intended for use against Iran, which is developing a nuclear program.
Now, I'm not saying this is the purpose. It could have been simply a matter of "we've got the money, let's spend it" - especially in light of the old wisdom that failing to spend all your money this year can make it harder to ask for more next year, as true for aid as it is for bureaucratic budgets.

What's more, there is a real impediment to an Israeli attack on Iran beyond matters of distance: It would require permission to overfly Iraq, something the US might be unhappy about because it would certainly result in the US being regarded as a cosponsor of the attack, technicalities about who actually in a legal sense would give permission (the interim government) be damned.

On the other hand, the US may want Iran "dealt with" and Israel has long since shown its determination to maintain its nuclear monopoly in the region. So if Israel wants to and is willing to undertake the attack, the US may be willing to accept the resulting flak, knowing that most (although not all) of it will be directed against Israel.

So am I saying that Israel is actively planning to attack Iran? No. But I am saying, again, that groundwork is being laid and options are being considered. We knew all along that Iraq was not the end.

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