050 The Erickson Report for March 17 to 30, Page Two: Ukraine

050 The Erickson Report for March 17 to 30, Page Two: Ukraine

In 1965, Donovan recorded a song called "The War Drags On." I was reminded of that song thinking about Ukraine and how it has dropped from the absolute number one spot in the news in a number of venues - not that it's being ignored or downplayed or that it's being treated as unimportant, it's still being regularly and intensively covered - but that's it's no longer the automatic story one of the day and it's happening because this war, as the song says, "drags on," in the day after day crushing grind of, again quoting the song, "a sea of blood and bones / Millions without faces, without hope and without homes."

We are able to, we often do, keep up with the war almost literally minute by minute, exposed to it in a way that was not possible earlier - I can recall Indochina being called "the first television war," perhaps we can call this "the first Internet war" - as our compassion is grated away by the on-going visions of bombed-out hospitals and desperate refugees but is pushed and stretched again by the undeniable reality of war from which we usually have shielded ourselves by distance and time, grated and pushed until we just desperately, desperately, feel we have to do something, something, and I fear we are being, intentionally or otherwise, stampeded into a spiral of war.

It sometimes seems - it's not true, but it does sometimes seem that - every proposal coming out of the mouths of the supposed experts, the foreign policy professionals, the analysts, the commentators, every proposal to stop or even just limit this war, all seem to involve stepping further into this war. A no-fly zone. A "limited" no-fly zone, whatever the hell that would mean in practice. A "safe zone" on the ground in western Ukraine, patrolled by UN - or maybe even US - troops. Providing not just defensive weapons like anti-tank or anti-aircraft missiles or drones but long-range offensive weapons - like those Migs.

I can't help but recall the infamous words of a US commander in the Indochina War: “It became necessary to destroy the town in order to save it.”

Mike Mazarr, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation had a Twitter thread on, quoting him, "Acting on the basis of imperative-driven thinking, especially under time pressure in a crisis, is a common prelude to disaster."

And that, I fear, is the possibility we face as the images of pain and desperation assault our eyes and ears and Volodymyr Zelenskyy's emotional, moving, and quite understandable pleas strike at our consciences.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/22967674/russia-ukraine-no-fly-zone-limited-nuclear-war
Happily, which sounds really creepy in this context but is intended to express mere relief, not any degree of joy, at least for the moment calmer heads are prevailing. For one thing, despite his pleas, Zelenskyy is not getting his no-fly zone.

It all sounds so easy. It's just protecting lives, that's all. Until you ask how you enforce it and what happens when you do. And how do you deal with the fact that this puts your jets in the line of fire of Russian anti-aircraft batteries. And how do you deal with the fact that most of the airstrikes - which are not even the main source of the destruction, artillery is - are coming from jets flying within the borders of Russia, just lobbing missiles across the border?

The reality is that as humanitarian as it sounds, a no-fly zone accomplishes very little while creating chances, in fact the near certainty, of escalation extending far beyond Ukraine with casualties that would dwarf those seen so far - even if you assume nuclear weapons would not be used.

For the same sorts of reasons, the same sorts of considerations, foreign troops, especially US troops, on the ground is a non-starter and the Migs, regarded by the US Department of War as too much potential risk for too little potential gain, are not coming.

Knowing all that does not make what we witness any easier to bear, but at least we can take whatever minuscule comfort there is in that those with the power (and the responsibility) to actually make those life-and-death choices are resisting the urge to think we can end the horror by adding to it.

Which also makes me wonder what Zelenskyy is thinking. Does he really believe, for example, that a no-fly zone would work, that it would not escalate the war? Is he thinking, just as the US and NATO falsely thought before the war began, that Pukin' could just be bullied into retreat? Or is he, as is more likely, and in the face of what his people are suffering, getting into that "imperative-driven thinking" that Mike Mazarr warned against? If that is true, then the caution of others is even more necessary.

Still, there is hope to be found. There are actual negotiations - well, talks, anyway - going on between officials of Russia and Ukraine, with both sides projecting some optimism. After the last round, the day before I do this, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and representative Dmitry Peskov both said a neutral military status for Ukraine similar to Sweden or Austria was being “seriously discussed,” a major step back from previous demands for the "demilitarization" of Ukraine, while for his part, Zelenskyy said Russia’s demands for ending the war were becoming “more realistic” while also acknowledging that there is no prospect of Ukraine joining NATO.

This does not by any means say that peace is breaking out all over - but it is progress and it starts to offer hints of what a settlement could be. In the meantime, there are a number of groups offering direct aid to the Ukranian people. Two I can suggest because I know they have a presence in Ukraine are Doctors Without Borders at www.doctonrswithoutborders.org and World Central Kitchen at wck.org.