The Erickson Report for December 9 to 22, Page One: A Longer Look at Yemen
We start with one of our occasional features. It's called A Longer Look and
the focus this time is on Yemen.I have over the past 10 years or so brought up the war in Yemen, whose on and off civil war, which has been marked by some shifting alliances, is so complicated that even trustworthy sources, such as the BBC, the Guardian, al-Jazeera, and the Council on Foreign Relation's Global Conflicts Tracker don't agree on the roots of the current incarnation of the conflict beyond that it began with the 2014 overthrow of the government of 33-year strongman Ali Abdullah Saleh in favor of his deputy Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, creating an opening for Houthi rebels to secure the northern province of Saada and thereafter seize the nation's capital of Sanaa.
What every one can agree on, however, is that since Saudi Arabia's intervention in 2015 the civil war has become essentially a proxy war between the Saudis, with the United Arab Emirates as a minor partner, on the one hand supporting Hadi's government and Iran on the other supporting the Houthi rebels. In other words, it's turned into a regional power struggle fought out on the bodies of Yemenis.
From the start, the US has cast its lot with the Saudis, first through US drone strikes supposedly aimed at terrorism that actually began under George Bushleague but increased dramatically during the administration of The Amazing Mr. O, and later through the more direct involvement of continuing to sell arms and supply intelligence to Saudi Arabia even as it became undeniable that the Saudis were committing war crimes in Yemen, including blockading ports, blocking entry of food, medical supplies, and other humanitarian assistance, and engaging in a campaign of bombing civilian targets, including hospitals, markets, and residential areas.
As a result, Yemen is in the midst of the worst humanitarian crisis on the planet. A 2018 report from Save the Children estimated that 85,000 Yemeni children had already starved to death and this October the UN reported that 100,000 children in southern Yemen alone could die of acute malnutrition if urgent humanitarian aid is not available.
How bad is it?
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification is a multinational project designed to present a common global scale for classifying the severity and magnitude of food insecurity and malnutrition.
So how bad is it? The first map on the right is its measure of current
food insecurity in Yemen. Yellow means stressed; orange means crisis; red means
emergency.The second one is its map of projected food insecurity for the first half of 2021.
It's very bad - and it's getting worse.
And now COVID-19 has hit
Yemen and is spreading unchecked in a country marked by a decimated health care
infrastructure and disrupted access to clean water, sanitary systems, sufficient
nutrition, and adequate shelter.
Even
before COVID, the nature of the Saudi-led war had become so obvious and
outrageous that in April 2019 Congress actually invoked the War Powers Act,
trying to put an end to US involvement. Tweetie-pie vetoed it and there wasn't
enough support to override it.
Since then, there have been several
attempts to block arms sales to the Saudis; support for that has increased each
time, but not yet enough to get it through.
Now there could be some
hope: Joe Blahden, who was something of a dove in the Amazing Mr. O's White
House, having opposed the war in Libya and the surge in Afghanistan, is heading
into office having pledged to end unauthorized US participation in the war in
Yemen. The word "unauthorized" leaves a lot of wiggle room: Does it actually
mean an end to arms sales plus an end to the provision of logistical support,
targeting assistance, spare parts, and intelligence? Or does it just mean
wanting Congress to sign off on what's already being done?
We'll have
to see but at least now there is more reason to think we can do this, that we
can put an end to our part in this monstrosity, more hope than we've had so far.
(In fairness, I'll note that some of those other forms of assistance,
particularly logistical support, have already been cut back under pressure from
Congress and the public.)
Speaking
of now, not to be denied his literal pound of flesh, a week after the election,
when any sane person knew he had lost, Tweetie-pie announced an intention to
sell $23 billion in advanced weaponry to the Saudi ally in the war, the United
Arab Emirates, including up to 50 F-35s. They are rushing to make it a done dealbefore January 20, apparently concerned that any such sale would be questioned
by a Blahden administration - a concern given weight by the fact that a group of
29 arms control and human rights groups have condemned the sale, which would
help give Blahden political cover to cancel it if it is done.
What
may be worse is that Secretary of State Mike Pompous is reportedly soon going to
classify the Houthi rebels as a foreign terrorist organization, which is likely
simply to make matters worse by further restricting international aid efforts
out of fear of being sanctioned by the US and driving up the
already-unaffordable prices for food and other basic necessities, particularly
in Houthi-controlled areas, which now encompass about 70% of Yemen's
population.
Aid
groups might try to find a work-around, but less altruistic institutions such as
banks and shipping lines, a "terrorist" designation would probably deter anykind of work in Yemen.
Dave Harden, a former top official at the US
Agency for International Development, believes the move could cause “a full
collapse of the economy and complete devaluation of the currency” while
effectively ending imports of food and vital sanitation products.
But
the Tweetie-pie gangsters just don't care because labeling the Houthis
terrorists will also be a poke in the eye to Iran, which, again, supports the
Houthis and the hope is that this will anger Iran enough to be a hindrance to
Blahden's intent to resurrect the Iran nuclear deal while being politically
difficult for Blahden to reverse for fear of being called "soft on Iran."
Frankly, he should just realize he's going to be called that no matter what he does and just go ahead and do the right thing: Withdraw all support from the Saudis (and their allies) about Yemen; if the arms deal with the UAE has been finalized, cancel it; call for a ceasefire; demand that humanitarian assistance be allowed in the country and contribute toward that aid; if the Houthis have been designated as terrorists either revoke it or at the least assure aid workers they will experience no repercussions from the US; and acknowledge Congress's Constitutional authority in matters of war and peace - the latter of which I think will be the hardest one for us to achieve.
Look, you know how I
feel about Joe Blahden: I greeted his election not with enthusiasm but with
relief. But there are some ways in which he can be more than just "not
Tweetie-pie," he can even be pretty good if the deeds live up to the words. This
could be one of those ways. For the sake of honor and humanity and tens of millions of
Yemenis, I hope it will be.
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